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For The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap on Game Boy Advance (GBA).

The Minish Cap Carlov Figurine

Carlov in Hyrule Town makes the 136 figurines and trades them for Mysterious Shells. Which ones he has depends on how far the story has got, and a few only turn up after a Kinstone fusion. The groups below follow the order he adds them in.

Trading shells

Carlov explains the trade:

I collect those Mysterious Shells you've
seen scattered all over the place.
If you bring those shells to me, I'll
trade you these figurines I have made.

Ahh, is that a Mysterious Shell? Hm...
I've got an offer I'd like to make you.
What do you say to trading it for
a chance at winning a figurine?

The chance of getting a figurine Link does not have yet is the share of the figurines on offer that he is still missing, rounded down, but never less than 1%. Every shell after the first in the same trade adds 1 percentage point, up to 100%. Link can hand over as many shells as he is carrying.

Chance = 100 × missing ÷ on offer (rounded down, at least 1) + 1 for every shell after the first, at most 100

Example: Carlov has 80 figurines on offer and Link has 60 of them. One shell gives 25%, 10 shells in one go give 34%, and 76 shells give 100%. The game shows the chance before the trade:

Probability
Shells: 10  34%

And on handing over lots at once:

I hear you've got a good chance of
turning up some rare figurines...
If you hand over lots of Mysterious
Shells
in one big load, that is...
Hehehe...

From the start

48 figurines

After the Cave of Flames

3 figurines

A little later, before the Fortress of Winds

9 figurines

After the Fortress of Winds

25 figurines

After the Temple of Droplets

12 figurines

Later, before the Palace of Winds

5 figurines

Later still, before the Palace of Winds

6 figurines

After the Palace of Winds

10 figurines

After the game is beaten

7 figurines

Through Kinstones and events

These figurines do not come with the story. Carlov adds each one once the fusion or event under it has happened. 11 figurines